by Rod Young
When candidates and/or their staff attend a really worthy electioneering course the novices find difficulty in believing that voter apathy is the most important reality. Issues are not king. Form generally prevails over substance. (Will Obama Prevail?)
Ironically, the larger the office and more momentous the issues, the greater the dispassion. Hence, organized “GOTV” (“Get Out The Vote) has always been, and probably will remain, key to political victory.
The average turnout in local elections is 30% of the electorate – consisting of voters well informed about the candidates and issues. In broader state or national elections, turnout can top 80%, but consist mostly in uninformed citizenry “turned out” by dedicated ward bosses and precinct captains in a well funded and inspired political army.
Of all the generals in WWII, General Patton was thought to be the most formidable as a potential presidential contender. On all battlefield no officer inspired more leadership, hard work, and passion down through the ranks. Of course, Eisenhower proved no slouch, but might have lost to George hands down.
In presidential GOP politics, it’s easy to predict that Mitt Romney will prevail. After five years building his forces, he has outclassed his primary opponents combined in recruitment and training – state by state, ward by ward, and even precinct by precinct.
Or, so we understand.
No doubt Newt Gingrich has struck a chord with fans of presidential debates (one voter in ten). The question persists whether he can gin up and structure a grass-roots movement through word of mouth and the Internet. Romney’s legions of mercenaries trump Gingrich’s special forces.
But towering over Romney and Gingrich in demonstrated political acumen is Barack Øbama, poised to ply his considerable skills acquired in the blatant politics of “community organizing.” Probably no leader since Attila the Hun has more devotees more capable of turning out the masses. The loadstone of Øbamaniacs is Øbama himself.
Barack may prove in 2012 that it’s “not the economy” or stupidly any other issue in particular, to include unemployment. The extra five to ten percent unemployed are possibly the easiest to hustle.
Pray tell, what’s the true agenda of jobless Occupiers?
The demise of Osama Bin Laden has substantially restored the President’s leadership credentials, certainly enough to allow him to power up his urban political machine (Chicago union style) coast to coast. His is raw politics at its best (or worst).
And, while at long last it’s become absurd to blame George Bush for a global economic and governance crisis decades in the making – greater in many ways than the Great Depression – neither is Øbama easily the designated national or international whipping boy.
The Rogues› Gallery of insane national leaders – elected and not – recently fallen and still falling, right and left, has buoyed Obama’s world stature. No national leader standing can out legitimize our consummate Pol.
So, will “Nine- Nine – Nine” or other GOP slogan make the difference?
Not likely to busloads of drunk sailors.
Will Obama Prevail?